Investor Sentiment and Malaysian Government Bonds: A COVID-19 Case Study
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56532/mjbem.v4i1.102Keywords:
Malaysian Government Bonds, COVID-19 Pandemic, Investor Sentiment, Gold PricesAbstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally altered investment strategies, particularly in bond markets. This study examines the global determinants of Malaysian government bond yields, comparing pre-pandemic and pandemic periods using daily data from January 2017 to May 2021. During the pandemic, Malaysian government bonds exhibited equity-like characteristics, diverging from their traditional safe-haven role, as evidenced by a positive relationship between bond yields and investor sentiment shocks. Gold prices emerged as the most influential factor, with their impact on bond yields becoming more pronounced during the pandemic, reaffirming gold's status as a safe-haven asset. The findings suggest that investors moved assets to gold during heightened risk periods before transitioning back to bonds. This highlights the need for investors to monitor gold prices and for policymakers to enhance bond market stability during crises to mitigate future economic uncertainties.
References
Andries, A. M., Ongena, S., & Sprincean, N. (2020). The COVID-19 pandemic and sovereign bond risk. Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper, (20-42). https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3605155
Arellano, C., Bai, Y., & Mihalache, G. P. (2020). Deadly debt crises: COVID-19 in emerging markets (No. w27275). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad058
Ashraf, B. N. (2020). Stock markets’ reaction to COVID-19: Cases or fatalities? Research in International Business and Finance, 54, 101249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101249
Awaludin, F., & Masih, M. (2015). Sukuk pricing dynamics: Factors influencing the yield curve of the Malaysian Sukuk. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/66355/.
Bank Negara Malaysia. (2012). Annual report 2012. https://www.bnm.gov.my/-/ar2012
Barrios, S., Iversen, P., Lewandowska, M., & Setzer, R. (2009). Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis (No. 388). Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission. http://dx.doi.org/10.2765/29413
Baur, D. G., & Lucey, B. M. (2010). Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An analysis of stocks, bonds, and gold. Financial Review, 45(2), 217–229. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6288.2010.00244.x
Ben-Rephael, A. (2017). Flight-to-liquidity, market uncertainty, and the actions of mutual fund investors. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 31, 30–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2017.05.002
Bixmalaysia. (2019). Malaysia bond and sukuk: Quarterly report 2Q 2019. Retrieved from https://www.bixmalaysia.com/Learning-Center/Articles-Tutorials/Malaysia-Bond-and-Sukuk-Quarterly-Report-2Q-2019.
Campbell, J. Y., & Ammer, J. (1993). What moves the stock and bond markets? A variance decomposition for long-term asset returns. The Journal of Finance, 48(1), 3–37. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04700.x
Chernov, M., Creal, D., & Hördahl, P. (2019). Determinants of Asia-Pacific government bond yields. BIS Paper, (102c). https://ssrn.com/abstract=3390920
Che-Yahya, N., Abdul-Rahim, R., & Mohd-Rashid, R. (2016). Determinants of corporate bond yield: The case of the Malaysian bond market. International Journal of Business and Society, 17(2). https://doi.org/10.33736/ijbs.523.2016
Chiang, T. C., Li, J., & Yang, S. Y. (2015). Dynamic stock–bond return correlations and financial market uncertainty. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 45(1), 59–88. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-013-0430-4
Choy, V. Y., & Ng, H. C. (2019). Determinants of bond yield. International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering, 7(5S), 238–244. https://www.ijrte.org/portfolio-item/es2150017519/
Ciner, C., Gurdgiev, C., & Lucey, B. M. (2013). Hedges and safe havens: An examination of stocks, bonds, gold, oil, and exchange rates. International Review of Financial Analysis, 29, 202–211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2012.12.001
Durand, R. B., Junker, M., & Szimayer, A. (2010). The flight‐to‐quality effect: A copula‐based analysis. Accounting & Finance, 50(2), 281–299. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-629X.2009.00320.x
Farmer, R. E. (2012). The stock market crash of 2008 caused the Great Recession: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 36(5), 693–707. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2012.02.003
Ferreira, P., Soares, I., & Araújo, M. (2005). Liberalisation, consumption heterogeneity, and the dynamics of energy prices. Energy Policy, 33(17), 2244–2255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2004.05.003
Goodell, J. W. (2020). COVID-19 and finance: Agendas for future research. Finance Research Letters, 35, 101512. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101512
Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424–438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791
Hsing, Y. (2015). Determinants of the government bond yield in Spain: A loanable funds model. International Journal of Financial Studies, 3(3), 342–350. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs3030342
Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica, 59(5), 1551–1580. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938278
Jong, H., & Sul, W. (2002). The Asian financial crisis and the co-movement of Asian stock markets. Journal of Asian Economics, 13(1), 94–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1049-0078(01)00115-4
Kang, W., Ratti, R. A., & Yoon, K. H. (2014). The impact of oil price shocks on US bond market returns. Energy Economics, 44, 248–258. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.04.009
Khalid, A., & Ahmad, Z. (2021). Stock–bond co-movement in ASEAN-5: The role of financial integration and financial development. International Journal of Emerging Markets. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-11-2020-1312
Lütkepohl, H., & Reimers, H. E. (1992). Granger-causality in cointegrated VAR processes: The case of the term structure. Economics Letters, 40(3), 263–268. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(92)90002-G
Mustafa, N. N. S., Shahdan, F., & Yi, A. K. J. (2013). The existence of flight to quality: Stock bond in Malaysia. Prosiding Persidangan Kebangsaan Ekonomi Malaysia Ke VIII, 1449. https://www.ukm.my/fep/perkem/pdf/perkemVIII/PKEM2013_5C5.pdf
Naka, A., & Tufte, D. R. (1997). Examining impulse response functions in cointegrated systems. Applied Economics, 29(12), 1593–1603. https://doi-org.eserv.uum.edu.my/10.1080/00036849700000035
Narayan, P. K. (2020). Oil price news and COVID-19—Is there any connection? Energy Research Letters, 1(1), 13176. https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.13176
Patje, F. (2014). Determinants of sovereign yield spreads within the EMU: Country fundamentals and credit rating agencies. Master Thesis, Tilburg University, 24–28. https://arno.uvt.nl/show.cgi?fid=135903
Poghosyan, T. (2014). Long-run and short-run determinants of sovereign bond yields in advanced economies. Economic Systems, 38(1), 100–114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2013.07.008
Salisu, A. A., Raheem, I. D., & Vo, X. V. (2021). Assessing the safe-haven property of the gold market during the COVID-19 pandemic. International Review of Financial Analysis, 74, 101666. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101666
Sims, C. A. (1980). Comparison of interwar and postwar business cycles: Monetarism reconsidered. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 70(2), 250–257. https://doi.org/10.3386/w0430
Spyrou, S. (2013). Investor sentiment and yield spread determinants: Evidence from European markets. Journal of Economic Studies, 40(6), 739–762. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-01-2012-0008
Wu, T. (2003). What makes the yield curve move? FRBSF Economic Letter, (June 6). https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/el2003-15.pdf
Yu-Xin, C., Yun-Lu, G., & Guo-Yang, S. (2021). The gold price and the economic policy uncertainty dynamics relationship: The continuous wavelet analysis. Economic Computation & Economic Cybernetics Studies & Research, 55(1). https://doi.org/10.24818/18423264/55.1.21.07
Zaremba, A., Kizys, R., & Aharon, D. Y. (2021). Volatility in international sovereign bond markets: The role of government policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Finance Research Letters, 102011. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102011
Zhang, D., Hu, M., & Ji, Q. (2020). Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19. Finance Research Letters, 36, 101528. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101528
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Ahmad Al Izham Izadin, Rosylin Mohd Yusof, Ahmad Rizal Mazlan

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
