The Optimization Model of the Phillips Curve using Shapiro-Stiglitz Model and the Kydland-Prescott Model for Fiscal and Monetary Policy Analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56532/mjbem.v5i1.234Keywords:
Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Phillips Curve, Optimization Model, Macroeconomic PolicyAbstract
Modern economic policy in many countries prioritizes short-run growth objectives. While such policies may generate immediate economic gains, they can also create long-run sustainability concerns through their effects on inflation and unemployment dynamics. Monetary economics proposes long-run equilibrium mechanisms that may mitigate these macroeconomic fluctuations. This study develops an analytical framework that integrates the Shapiro–Stiglitz efficiency wage model of unemployment with the Kydland–Prescott model of inflation setting and applies a Lagrangian optimization framework to estimate the optimal rate of economic growth subject to inflation targets set by the central bank of the Philippines. To examine the structural relationships implied by the theoretical framework, a Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) regression is employed, with results suggesting a significant disconnect between the policy objectives of the central government and those of the central bank. The predictive performance of the model is further evaluated using a quadratic ordinary least squares (OLS) regression comparing forecasted and observed output growth rates. The estimated model produces a higher coefficient of determination and statistically significant coefficients relative to regressions using Philippine GDP growth data, suggesting that the GDP optimization model may provide a useful analytical tool for informing macroeconomic policy design.
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